Tuesday, August 19, 2008
WHEN'S THE PARDO?
As the amateur draft signing deadline has past – August 15th, the Sox are probably happy about the load of talent they are bringing into the organization. It certainly cost them – upwards of $10 million according to Jim Callis of Baseball America. (Other later pick notables not mentioned by Callis are Ryan Lavarnway and Richie Wasielewski. Lavarnway is a sixth-rounder given third-round money - 325K. Wasielewski was selected in the 36th round and the Sox signed him for 135K, which usually goes to sixth round picks.) The Olde Towne Team did save a few bucks relative to recent years, as they didn’t spend so much in the international market. Regardless, this is an impressive sign that the Sox are going to take advantage of a flawed system – the acquisition of amateur talent – while they still can.
The next CBA is likely to further change the draft and where it could possibly include international players, trading picks, etc. It seems like many options will be on the table. The draft could change dramatically. Hence, it seems peculiar that Alex Meyer would turn down a REPORTED $2 million offer from the Sox. For Meyer to rationally turn down the Sox reported offer, he would need to believe that:
* no changes to the next CBA in 2011 would diminish the college draftee’s leverage - Meyers is eligible for the draft again in 2011,
* 10% signing bonus inflation,
* he will be a top 20 selection
Even though Meyer’s agent, no Advisor, is Scott Boras, it is not in Boras’ interest to have him go to school; he will not get paid and maybe never. I think it is either Meyer having no desire to turn pro or taking a chance on above three conditions.
***
One other item to note is the MFY had a big set back when their first-round selection and top 15 talent, Gerrit Cole, did not sign. They also didn’t ink Scott Bittle from the second-round. They do get supplemental selections next year and brought in some nice international talent, but the Sox did a better job from this unbiased blogger. Is it too early to start planning for my MFY elimination pardo?
As the amateur draft signing deadline has past – August 15th, the Sox are probably happy about the load of talent they are bringing into the organization. It certainly cost them – upwards of $10 million according to Jim Callis of Baseball America. (Other later pick notables not mentioned by Callis are Ryan Lavarnway and Richie Wasielewski. Lavarnway is a sixth-rounder given third-round money - 325K. Wasielewski was selected in the 36th round and the Sox signed him for 135K, which usually goes to sixth round picks.) The Olde Towne Team did save a few bucks relative to recent years, as they didn’t spend so much in the international market. Regardless, this is an impressive sign that the Sox are going to take advantage of a flawed system – the acquisition of amateur talent – while they still can.
The next CBA is likely to further change the draft and where it could possibly include international players, trading picks, etc. It seems like many options will be on the table. The draft could change dramatically. Hence, it seems peculiar that Alex Meyer would turn down a REPORTED $2 million offer from the Sox. For Meyer to rationally turn down the Sox reported offer, he would need to believe that:
* no changes to the next CBA in 2011 would diminish the college draftee’s leverage - Meyers is eligible for the draft again in 2011,
* 10% signing bonus inflation,
* he will be a top 20 selection
Even though Meyer’s agent, no Advisor, is Scott Boras, it is not in Boras’ interest to have him go to school; he will not get paid and maybe never. I think it is either Meyer having no desire to turn pro or taking a chance on above three conditions.
***
One other item to note is the MFY had a big set back when their first-round selection and top 15 talent, Gerrit Cole, did not sign. They also didn’t ink Scott Bittle from the second-round. They do get supplemental selections next year and brought in some nice international talent, but the Sox did a better job from this unbiased blogger. Is it too early to start planning for my MFY elimination pardo?
Monday, August 18, 2008
COMCAST MIGHT SUCK MORE THAN THE MFY
My net access has been limited over the past few days. Blogging, buying stupid shit, surfing for porn are not essential tasks but paying bills is kind of. It is tough to imagine life without the series of tubes. Anyway, the Sox sucked this weekend. Period. The week ahead is looking brighter. TB faces LAA and the Other Sox, so this week provides the local nine with a good opportunity to gain some ground.
***
I’ve got a weird opinion on non-profits and charities. I won’t bore you with it. I will say that I’ve got a weird feeling that “jakeyfitz” - the winner of the eBay auction for an Experience a Private Dinner for (4) with Ben Affleck to benefit Dana-Farber and the Jimmy Fund - is the ben Aflac trivia question himself. I mean “jakeyfitz” has no eBay history? That’s a little slim shady. Regardless, a date with Surviving Grady’s Heidiamalie would have netted more than 13 Gs.
My net access has been limited over the past few days. Blogging, buying stupid shit, surfing for porn are not essential tasks but paying bills is kind of. It is tough to imagine life without the series of tubes. Anyway, the Sox sucked this weekend. Period. The week ahead is looking brighter. TB faces LAA and the Other Sox, so this week provides the local nine with a good opportunity to gain some ground.
***
I’ve got a weird opinion on non-profits and charities. I won’t bore you with it. I will say that I’ve got a weird feeling that “jakeyfitz” - the winner of the eBay auction for an Experience a Private Dinner for (4) with Ben Affleck to benefit Dana-Farber and the Jimmy Fund - is the ben Aflac trivia question himself. I mean “jakeyfitz” has no eBay history? That’s a little slim shady. Regardless, a date with Surviving Grady’s Heidiamalie would have netted more than 13 Gs.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
WHAT ABOUT THE PEN?
Even though the Sox tried to work out a deal for the OBP machine - Brian Giles, Wake is down and Buchholz sucks which prompted the trade for Paul Byrd, their biggest need is still finding a consistent reliever in the eighth. Unlike the rotation (Colon, Bowden, Byrd) and the bench (Chris Carter, Jeff Bailey), the Sox do not have possibilities in or outside of the organization to set up Papelbon. So Paps should man up and go two innings under certain circumstances like in 2006.
The conditions are fairly simple – up by one or two runs going into the eighth, when he did not pitch the night before. Papelbon should only pitch under these circumstances unless an off day is tomorrow. By not going in for the cheap save (a.k.a. up by three runs and one inning of work), Paps should be available more often for two inning outings. Okajima, Delcaremen, etc. can close out the game when the Olde Towne Team has a larger margin for error. Without an equally effective reliever this season, Tito needs to more judicially deploy his best – Papelbon – from here on out.
***
Paul Byrd is a nice acquistion as it would seem that the Sox paid very little – PTBNL or cash – for the vet. The “or cash” part should mean that the PTBNL is not a prospect. With that being said, Byrd is unlikely to be a savior. He cleared waivers for a reason. Even if we ignore the small sample size issue of only four starts and 28 innings that the MSM is touting, Byrd has a 12/7 K/BB ratio and 37/39 GB/FB during that time period. And those are not good numbers.
Even though the Sox tried to work out a deal for the OBP machine - Brian Giles, Wake is down and Buchholz sucks which prompted the trade for Paul Byrd, their biggest need is still finding a consistent reliever in the eighth. Unlike the rotation (Colon, Bowden, Byrd) and the bench (Chris Carter, Jeff Bailey), the Sox do not have possibilities in or outside of the organization to set up Papelbon. So Paps should man up and go two innings under certain circumstances like in 2006.
The conditions are fairly simple – up by one or two runs going into the eighth, when he did not pitch the night before. Papelbon should only pitch under these circumstances unless an off day is tomorrow. By not going in for the cheap save (a.k.a. up by three runs and one inning of work), Paps should be available more often for two inning outings. Okajima, Delcaremen, etc. can close out the game when the Olde Towne Team has a larger margin for error. Without an equally effective reliever this season, Tito needs to more judicially deploy his best – Papelbon – from here on out.
***
Paul Byrd is a nice acquistion as it would seem that the Sox paid very little – PTBNL or cash – for the vet. The “or cash” part should mean that the PTBNL is not a prospect. With that being said, Byrd is unlikely to be a savior. He cleared waivers for a reason. Even if we ignore the small sample size issue of only four starts and 28 innings that the MSM is touting, Byrd has a 12/7 K/BB ratio and 37/39 GB/FB during that time period. And those are not good numbers.
Thursday, August 07, 2008
I FOUND A REASON TO WATCH THE OLYMPICS
Say hello to the Brazilian Olympic Synchronized Swimming Sisters Bia and Branca Feres. Here is a questionable NSFW photo. This will compete with the link to Boston Sexist Bartenders for the most out clicks ever.
Say hello to the Brazilian Olympic Synchronized Swimming Sisters Bia and Branca Feres. Here is a questionable NSFW photo. This will compete with the link to Boston Sexist Bartenders for the most out clicks ever.
Monday, August 04, 2008
MY FULL TAKE ON THE MANNY TRADE
Given the circumstances, this is a great deal for the Sox. The Olde Towne Team had to trade Manny. As George proved, you can’t rip your owner, bosses, co-workers, quit and the next day, come to work as if everything is fine. Okay, maybe it worked for Manny in the past (George could only hit like Manny when he gave up sex), but we now know it can’t be done publicly even for a future HOFer.
As Sean McAdam said on Comcast Sports, the clubhouse vets made it known that Manny could be detriment to playing October baseball, which is a change from the team’s position in the past, and this was likely the last straw.
Even though other clubs probably didn’t know that Manny’s teammates have given up on him, the Sox leverage in negotiations was terrible. To Manny’s credit, he did aid in getting himself out of Boston by waiving his no-trade rights without being compensated beyond 2008, but also agreeing to not accept arbitration thereby decreasing his value this winter. With the Sox picking up the remainder of his 2008 salary, it made the future HOFer, with all of his warts, an attractive enough commodity to bring back a player to help the Sox get to the playoffs this year.
The Sox not only got a guy to help them this year, but in 2009 for $12.5M less than Manny. Jason Bay appears to be a solid player. He is an upgrade over Adam Dunn on the field and the balance sheet, and not the PR nightmare that would surface with bringing in Barry Bonds. The Sox did a great job!
Only Bay’s prime year of 2005 compares to a Manny season at the plate, but he is no slouch with the wood, is a better defensively (although not as much as many metrics would indicate due to Manny playing ½ his games at Fenway) and on the bases. Bay’s numbers to date alleviates the concern that his 2007 season was a sign of bad things to come; he did play through a knee problem. The only risk with this deal is can he adjust to a new League in a completely different kind of working environment? Hopefully, the Sox did their homework on Bay’s personality, and concluded that he could succeed in Boston.
As for the other items the Sox gave up for Bay - the $7M sent to L.A., Brandon Moss and Craigslist Hansen to Pitt - none are that critical. First the money, the $7M was already budgeted so it is not an issue. The Sox can absorb a third of Bay’s salary - $1.9167M – by keeping beer sales open one inning later for the rest of the year. Moss like David Murphy is a tweener – not good enough with the leather to play center and doesn’t hit enough to play a corner. These types usually are not part of an October club unless they have big bats up the middle. With the Sox organizational depth in the OF and MLB club‘s makeup, Moss was expendable. Hansen, due to his sleep disorder, being rushed, pro-ball using different baseballs than the college game, has never live up to the hype. Hansen reminds me of Nuke LaLoosh, great arm and stuff, but can’t command anything. The New Yorker still hasn’t learned how to breath through his eye lids, where a garter belt and bang cougars like we said Hansen was rushed to the Show. Regardless, the Sox will probably never miss Moss and Hansen.
In summary, the Sox are taking a risk for two months at a higher cost, assuming Manny would have been Manny for the rest of the season but even his past defenders or teammates thought that may not be the case this time around, so I’d like to think of this as a push in 2008. After this year, it is all good. They get a comparable leftfielder and freed up $12.5M for whomever maybe Yu Darvish.
***
LAD
The Dodgers got a nice return assuming their assessment of Andy LaRoche is correct. LaRoche has hit well at every level, but his 150 or so ABs with the Dodgers. LA never gave him a shot and shipped him to Pitt. LAD also sent a minor league reliever coming off Tommy John. From the Dodgers perspective, they gave up very little to get a guy that should push him into October baseball and forget about the terrible contract given to Juan Pierre and the disaster known as Andruw Jones.
PITT
The Pirates didn’t need to move a valuable asset like Bay. He won’t be a free agent this winter. The Pirates are not in contention. Bay isn’t causing a fuss. He wasn’t caught with altars boys in the basement of the wonderful Pirates Park. They could have and should have waited until this winter to trade Bay. The Pirates still would have had both the Sox and Rays bidding against one another and I would guess more than just those two. More demand with the same level of supply equals a higher price. The Pirates settled for one quality albeit questionable prospect (LaRoche), a fourth outfielder, and two volatile bullpen arms. They could have gotten more for a quality cheap player like Bay.
THE FAN IN ME
The first thing that comes to mind about Manny is the Manny Being Manny moments and not the walk-off I think I was at against K-Rod or the HR in St. Louis during the W.S. With other players even those who spent less time here (Trot Nixon, Pedro, Schilling, Big Papi, Mo Vaughn, Troy O‘Leary), I have or had a more meaningful connection with for some reason. Basically, I got good stories where they made my day, night, or decade. Manny just didn’t do that for me, even though he is a HOFer. Maybe that says something about me or something about Manny; probably both of us.
Given the circumstances, this is a great deal for the Sox. The Olde Towne Team had to trade Manny. As George proved, you can’t rip your owner, bosses, co-workers, quit and the next day, come to work as if everything is fine. Okay, maybe it worked for Manny in the past (George could only hit like Manny when he gave up sex), but we now know it can’t be done publicly even for a future HOFer.
As Sean McAdam said on Comcast Sports, the clubhouse vets made it known that Manny could be detriment to playing October baseball, which is a change from the team’s position in the past, and this was likely the last straw.
Even though other clubs probably didn’t know that Manny’s teammates have given up on him, the Sox leverage in negotiations was terrible. To Manny’s credit, he did aid in getting himself out of Boston by waiving his no-trade rights without being compensated beyond 2008, but also agreeing to not accept arbitration thereby decreasing his value this winter. With the Sox picking up the remainder of his 2008 salary, it made the future HOFer, with all of his warts, an attractive enough commodity to bring back a player to help the Sox get to the playoffs this year.
The Sox not only got a guy to help them this year, but in 2009 for $12.5M less than Manny. Jason Bay appears to be a solid player. He is an upgrade over Adam Dunn on the field and the balance sheet, and not the PR nightmare that would surface with bringing in Barry Bonds. The Sox did a great job!
Only Bay’s prime year of 2005 compares to a Manny season at the plate, but he is no slouch with the wood, is a better defensively (although not as much as many metrics would indicate due to Manny playing ½ his games at Fenway) and on the bases. Bay’s numbers to date alleviates the concern that his 2007 season was a sign of bad things to come; he did play through a knee problem. The only risk with this deal is can he adjust to a new League in a completely different kind of working environment? Hopefully, the Sox did their homework on Bay’s personality, and concluded that he could succeed in Boston.
As for the other items the Sox gave up for Bay - the $7M sent to L.A., Brandon Moss and Craigslist Hansen to Pitt - none are that critical. First the money, the $7M was already budgeted so it is not an issue. The Sox can absorb a third of Bay’s salary - $1.9167M – by keeping beer sales open one inning later for the rest of the year. Moss like David Murphy is a tweener – not good enough with the leather to play center and doesn’t hit enough to play a corner. These types usually are not part of an October club unless they have big bats up the middle. With the Sox organizational depth in the OF and MLB club‘s makeup, Moss was expendable. Hansen, due to his sleep disorder, being rushed, pro-ball using different baseballs than the college game, has never live up to the hype. Hansen reminds me of Nuke LaLoosh, great arm and stuff, but can’t command anything. The New Yorker still hasn’t learned how to breath through his eye lids, where a garter belt and bang cougars like we said Hansen was rushed to the Show. Regardless, the Sox will probably never miss Moss and Hansen.
In summary, the Sox are taking a risk for two months at a higher cost, assuming Manny would have been Manny for the rest of the season but even his past defenders or teammates thought that may not be the case this time around, so I’d like to think of this as a push in 2008. After this year, it is all good. They get a comparable leftfielder and freed up $12.5M for whomever maybe Yu Darvish.
***
LAD
The Dodgers got a nice return assuming their assessment of Andy LaRoche is correct. LaRoche has hit well at every level, but his 150 or so ABs with the Dodgers. LA never gave him a shot and shipped him to Pitt. LAD also sent a minor league reliever coming off Tommy John. From the Dodgers perspective, they gave up very little to get a guy that should push him into October baseball and forget about the terrible contract given to Juan Pierre and the disaster known as Andruw Jones.
PITT
The Pirates didn’t need to move a valuable asset like Bay. He won’t be a free agent this winter. The Pirates are not in contention. Bay isn’t causing a fuss. He wasn’t caught with altars boys in the basement of the wonderful Pirates Park. They could have and should have waited until this winter to trade Bay. The Pirates still would have had both the Sox and Rays bidding against one another and I would guess more than just those two. More demand with the same level of supply equals a higher price. The Pirates settled for one quality albeit questionable prospect (LaRoche), a fourth outfielder, and two volatile bullpen arms. They could have gotten more for a quality cheap player like Bay.
THE FAN IN ME
The first thing that comes to mind about Manny is the Manny Being Manny moments and not the walk-off I think I was at against K-Rod or the HR in St. Louis during the W.S. With other players even those who spent less time here (Trot Nixon, Pedro, Schilling, Big Papi, Mo Vaughn, Troy O‘Leary), I have or had a more meaningful connection with for some reason. Basically, I got good stories where they made my day, night, or decade. Manny just didn’t do that for me, even though he is a HOFer. Maybe that says something about me or something about Manny; probably both of us.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
I HAVE A LOT TO SAY ON THE MANNY DEAL
...but it will have to wait because I'm tired. I will say that I told you so that it would be the Dodgers and the Sox and LAD made out on this trade.
...but it will have to wait because I'm tired. I will say that I told you so that it would be the Dodgers and the Sox and LAD made out on this trade.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
THINGS ARE GETTING CLOSER
Buster Olney of ESPN and Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus are reporting that John Grabow is now a part of the Manny-Bay-Hermida deal. Olney goes on to state...
"The current sticking point, according to a well-placed source, is that the Marlins want the Red Sox to add a prospect to their take in the deal."
Well, Carroll says that Bud needs to sign off on the deal because of the cash involved and Manny needs to approve it as well. He goes on to state that the parties are still going back and forth on minor leaguers but the main assets are in place.
Marlins get Manny Ramirez, one prospect (BOS), and cash (likely Ramirez’s remaining salary)
Pirates get Jeremy Hermida and three prospects (two FLO, one BOS)
Red Sox get Jason Bay and John Grabow
Buster Olney of ESPN and Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus are reporting that John Grabow is now a part of the Manny-Bay-Hermida deal. Olney goes on to state...
"The current sticking point, according to a well-placed source, is that the Marlins want the Red Sox to add a prospect to their take in the deal."
Well, Carroll says that Bud needs to sign off on the deal because of the cash involved and Manny needs to approve it as well. He goes on to state that the parties are still going back and forth on minor leaguers but the main assets are in place.
Marlins get Manny Ramirez, one prospect (BOS), and cash (likely Ramirez’s remaining salary)
Pirates get Jeremy Hermida and three prospects (two FLO, one BOS)
Red Sox get Jason Bay and John Grabow
MANNY TO THE MARLINS, JASON BAY TO THE SOX AND PROSPECTS TO THE PIRATES
...the latest rumor on Baseball Tonight and Baseball Prospectus. Gammons said the Rays think Bay will end up in Boston.
...the latest rumor on Baseball Tonight and Baseball Prospectus. Gammons said the Rays think Bay will end up in Boston.
MORE ON MANNY
As expected, according to the Globe’s Nick Cafardo, the Sox are having difficultly finding a “…quality bat to make it worth their while…” to trade Manny. Hence, my prediction that Manny would only get dealt as part of a three-way that would turn into a foursome deal.
Well, the Sox do have a much easier alternative – sign Barry Bonds to replace Manny’s big bat, bad attitude, poor fielding and base running at a fraction of the price. They would also get something back for the departing Ramirez (TO THE MARLINS?)without having to gamble on offering him arbitration.
As for Bonds, he likely could play a week or so in RI and/or ME to get ready for the Show. Of course, the 40-something likely criminal could suck after not seeing live pitching for 10-months. It is a risky move, but one possibly worth taking given the prospects Ramirez would bring into the Sox system.
The Sox would face a public relations $hit storm like no other, but this may be a time to cash in a few of their goodwill chips. It would also increase the chances of Curly Haired Boy’s head spontaneously combusting, so I really can’t see much of a downside here.
As expected, according to the Globe’s Nick Cafardo, the Sox are having difficultly finding a “…quality bat to make it worth their while…” to trade Manny. Hence, my prediction that Manny would only get dealt as part of a three-way that would turn into a foursome deal.
Well, the Sox do have a much easier alternative – sign Barry Bonds to replace Manny’s big bat, bad attitude, poor fielding and base running at a fraction of the price. They would also get something back for the departing Ramirez (TO THE MARLINS?)without having to gamble on offering him arbitration.
As for Bonds, he likely could play a week or so in RI and/or ME to get ready for the Show. Of course, the 40-something likely criminal could suck after not seeing live pitching for 10-months. It is a risky move, but one possibly worth taking given the prospects Ramirez would bring into the Sox system.
The Sox would face a public relations $hit storm like no other, but this may be a time to cash in a few of their goodwill chips. It would also increase the chances of Curly Haired Boy’s head spontaneously combusting, so I really can’t see much of a downside here.
Monday, July 28, 2008
WHEN PETER GAMMONS RIPS YOU A NEW ONE
...it is time to take a long look in the mirror, MONEY Manny. I mean Gammons even says good things about Milton Bradley and A-Hole. There is so much good stuff from the HOFer that you just need to read his blog. Just in case, it goes sub only here is the most telling part.
Scott Boras intervened and helped the fine/anger-management solution after Ramirez shoved traveling secretary Jack McCormick. And Boras right now is trying to help Manny understand that it is in his best interest to, in Boras' words, "fulfill his current obligation," and put up the free-agent numbers here in Boston, where he has David Ortiz to take the heat Manny ignores, with five All-Stars in the lineup around him.
When Gammons quotes your agent to rip you, it is time for a Dr. Phil intervention. Everyone needs some tough love every once in awhile.
...it is time to take a long look in the mirror, MONEY Manny. I mean Gammons even says good things about Milton Bradley and A-Hole. There is so much good stuff from the HOFer that you just need to read his blog. Just in case, it goes sub only here is the most telling part.
Scott Boras intervened and helped the fine/anger-management solution after Ramirez shoved traveling secretary Jack McCormick. And Boras right now is trying to help Manny understand that it is in his best interest to, in Boras' words, "fulfill his current obligation," and put up the free-agent numbers here in Boston, where he has David Ortiz to take the heat Manny ignores, with five All-Stars in the lineup around him.
When Gammons quotes your agent to rip you, it is time for a Dr. Phil intervention. Everyone needs some tough love every once in awhile.
Thank you - Red Sox!
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